Le FMI propose de supprimer progressivement les obligations特殊 en Ukraine
Le FMI propose de phasing out Ukraine’s special obligations (PSO) for electricity and gas, with a gradual 20% reduction in the first year, 60% in the second and another 20% in the third. The reform would involve higher household tariffs paired with targeted social assistance. The fund does not currently recommend introducing separate social tariffs.
L'essentiel
- According to IMF estimates, energy subsidies and related fiscal measures cost 3.7% of GDP annually in 2024–2026.
- Current electricity and gas tariffs cover 41% and 49% of their respective costs.
- The IMF proposes reducing special obligations by 20% in the first year, 60% in the second and another 20% in the third.
- Under Scenario A, the electricity tariff would reach 9.7 hryvnias per kWh and the gas tariff 22 hryvnias per cubic metre, including VAT.
- Under Scenario B, the electricity tariff would reach 6 hryvnias per kWh and the gas tariff 17.2 hryvnias per cubic metre, including VAT.
- The IMF estimates fiscal savings of 3.2% of GDP under Scenario A and 1.5% of GDP under Scenario B.
- The proposal includes targeted assistance for households unable to pay the full cost of energy.
Pourquoi c’est important
The reform could reduce the substantial fiscal burden associated with energy subsidies and related support measures. At the same time, it would materially raise household electricity and gas tariffs, affecting affordability and household finances. The IMF therefore links tariff increases to targeted assistance for consumers unable to pay the full cost of energy. The proposal also raises questions about the role and regulation of special obligations in the energy market, while projected fiscal savings differ substantially between the two scenarios.
Ce qui s’est passé
The IMF proposed gradually phasing out Ukraine’s special obligations mechanism and replacing it with higher household electricity and gas tariffs combined with targeted social assistance. According to the fund, current tariffs cover 41% of electricity costs and 49% of gas costs; much of the difference is funded by the state energy companies Naftogaz and Energoatom. Under both scenarios, the reduction in special obligations would be implemented over three years: 20% in the first year, 60% in the second and another 20% in the third. Scenario A assumes unchanged current market conditions, with the electricity tariff rising to 9.7 hryvnias per kWh and gas to 22 hryvnias per cubic metre, including VAT. Scenario B assumes a return to stable post-war conditions in the medium term, with tariffs of 6 hryvnias per kWh and 17.2 hryvnias per cubic metre, respectively, and takes into account supply-efficiency improvements and reconstruction costs. The IMF estimates that full implementation would save 3.2% of GDP under Scenario A and 1.5% under Scenario B.
Contexte
Energy subsidies and analogous fiscal measures were estimated at 3.7% of GDP annually in 2024–2026. Electricity subsidies under special obligations accounted for about 1.8% of GDP annually, while gas subsidies represented 1.4%. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly extended special obligations and regulated tariffs. The electricity tariff for households was previously raised by 83% in May 2023 and by 64% to 4.32 hryvnias per kilowatt-hour after the government decision of 31 May 2024. A separate social-tariff system would require complex monitoring of energy distribution, which Ukraine reportedly does not yet have, and would need to comply with the EU’s Third and Fourth Energy Packages.