Les亚特iques could strengthen their influence on US support for Ukraine after the midterms
Analysts believe the Democratic Party has a good chance of winning a majority in the US House of Representatives on 3 November, and could also take the Senate. A victory in both chambers could allow Democrats to approve new aid to Ukraine with the two-thirds majority needed to override President Donald Trump's veto. The outcome for Ukraine remains uncertain if Republicans retain the Senate.
L'essentiel
- US midterms are scheduled for 3 November 2026.
- Analysts see a strong chance of Democrats winning the House and possibly the Senate.
- Trump has practically suspended direct US financial and military aid to Ukraine.
- Two-thirds votes in both chambers would be needed to override Trump's veto of new aid to Ukraine.
- Valerii Chaliy considers a Democratic House win and continued Republican control of the Senate the most likely scenario.
- If Democrats control both chambers, they could determine which foreign-policy proposals are put to a vote.
- Trump proposed a 67% increase in the defence budget, to $1.5 trillion.
Pourquoi c’est important
A Democratic victory in both chambers of Congress could allow lawmakers to initiate and approve new aid to Ukraine with the two-thirds majority needed to override Trump's veto. It could also alter the balance of power between the White House and Congress over military conflicts, defence spending and foreign assistance. However, Republican control of the Senate and the presidential veto would still allow the administration to block many Democratic initiatives.
Ce qui s’est passé
Independent analysts believe Democrats have good prospects of winning a majority in the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the 3 November midterms. The result could increase their influence over US foreign policy. Democrats have already blocked Trump's proposals to increase the defence budget, citing his refusal to consult Congress about the war with Iran and cuts to social programmes. Trump has practically halted direct US financial and military assistance to Ukraine and has also suspended or cancelled billions of dollars in foreign assistance approved by Congress. If Democrats control both chambers, they could determine which proposals reach a vote and potentially approve new aid to Ukraine with the two-thirds majority required to overcome the president's veto.
Ce qu’en disent les sources ukrainiennes
The Ukrainian context focuses on restoring suspended American assistance, overcoming the presidential veto and potentially strengthening sanctions pressure on Russia. Valerii Chaliy expects Democrats to take control of the House while Republicans retain the Senate, which would limit the scope of any legislative reversal in Washington's Ukraine policy.
Ce qu’en disent les sources internationales
The possible change in congressional control is viewed primarily through questions of constitutional presidential powers, wars, the defence budget and foreign assistance. The consequences for Ukraine and Israel, the war with Iran and overall military spending are assessed conditionally, depending on whether Republicans retain the Senate and the presidential veto remains available.
Contexte
In relations with Russia, Donald Trump reached an agreement on diesel fuel and delayed new anti-Russian sanctions under the law named after Lindsey Graham. Democratic Representative Gregory Meeks introduced a bipartisan bill intended to block Trump's plan to return Russian diesel fuel to the world market. Democrats also blocked Trump's defence-budget proposals, citing his failure to consult Congress about the war with Iran and substantial cuts to social programmes.